Ontario Housing Market Report
- Average home prices in Ontario increasedby 0.3% year-over-year to reach$832,376
- Greater Toronto Area home prices remained the same year-over-year, at $1.08M
- City of Toronto home prices decreasedby 3% year-over-year to$1.01M
- Ottawa home prices increasedby 1% year-over-year to$640k
- Mississauga home prices decreasedby 2% year-over-year to$1.06M
- Brampton home prices remained the same year-over-year, at $1.01M
- Hamilton home prices increasedby 1% year-over-year to$799k
Average Home Prices in Ontario for August 2023
Historical Average Home Prices in Ontario
Note: Data sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS®, and other regional or local realtor boards.
Ontario Housing Market as of August 2023
A slowing Ontario housing market is on the horizon as sales activity in the province falls to its lowest level ever for an August in over 10 years. With 13,802 home sales in August 2023, sales activity in Ontario is down 4% year-over-year. Ontario home prices are also decreasing, falling by 3% compared to last month to end up at $832,376 in August 2023. These declines come after two recent Bank of Canada rate hikes in June and July 2023, which have put additional pressure on buyers and further cooled the Ontario housing market.
The impact of recent rate hikes has been felt across all major housing markets in Ontario, with Toronto exactly matching the provincial average’s price movements. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market, which accounted for 14% of all home sales in Canada for the month of August 2023, saw prices fall 3% compared to last month, mirroring the 3% decrease in the provincial average price. Similarly, the GTA’s annual price gain stood at 0.3%, matching the provincial average’s annual price gain of 0.3%.
What doesn’t match is the GTA’s average home price being the highest in the province, at $1,082,496 in August 2023. For those looking to buy a house in Toronto, you'll need a minimum income of more than $213,000 to afford an average home, based on the City of Toronto’s average home price of $1,005,945 for August 2023. You’ll also need to cough up at least $201,000 as a down payment.
Looking at Ontario’s major urban housing markets in terms of annual price change for August 2023, Hamilton's housing market witnessed a slight increase of 1% in average home prices compared to the previous year. On the other hand, Brampton experienced a small decrease of 0.5% annually. Moving on to Oshawa, there was a small rise of 2% in average home prices, while Mississauga saw a 2% decrease. Ottawa's housing market had a 1% year-over-year increase, and London experienced a minor growth of 2% in average sold prices. These major cities in Ontario are all observing price movements ranging from -2% to 2% annually.
Mississauga is the worst performing with a 2% year-over-year decrease in average sold prices, while neighbouring Brampton also had a slight decrease. Other major housing markets in Ontario are still seeing an increase in prices, however slight, compared to the same period last year.
Looking at home prices, the average home price in Toronto’s housing market for August 2023 was $1,005,945 for the City of Toronto and $1,082,496 for the GTA. Brampton had an average selling price of $1,013,744. Meanwhile, Mississauga home prices fell slightly to $1,057,232.
The Ottawa and Hamilton housing markets remain cheaper alternatives to the GTA’s expensive home prices. Hamilton’s average sold price for August 2023 was $798,786, while Ottawa’s average sold price was $640,220. These are both 6% decreases compared to the previous month. Real estate in London, Ontario, remains relatively affordable, although slightly more expensive than Ottawa, with an average price of $663,663. Oshawa’s housing market had an average price of $815,098.
Housing Markets of Major Cities in Ontario
|City||Average Home Prices|
$1,005,945-2.5% vs. 2022
2,794,3562.3% vs. 2016
$640,2200.7% vs. 2022
1,017,4498.9% vs. 2016
$798,7860.8% vs. 2022
569,3536.0% vs. 2016
$1,057,232-1.8% vs. 2022
717,961-0.5% vs. 2016
$1,013,744-0.5% vs. 2022
656,48010.6% vs. 2016
Ontario Housing Market Forecast for 2023
Ontario’s housing market saw a sharp correction in prices in 2022 as Bank of Canada rate hikes brought about rising interest rates, stifling demand. Looking forward, Ontario’s housing market forecast for 2023 depends on a few factors.
A pause in Bank of Canada rate hikes, something that is widely predicted as inflation eases off and as the risk of a recession increases, might even translate into rate cuts this year. Immigration, looking mainly at newcomers and international students, has also been returning to normal levels. More people looking for a home will boost demand. Met with a shortage in housing inventory, a surge in buyers will introduce upward pressure on housing prices.
The federal government banned foreign buyers from buying a home in Canada, starting in 2023. Should interest rates continue to increase, demand will be crippled further.
Ontario’s Housing Market Forecast: Things to Watch
|Negative Impact||Positive Impact|
|Higher Interest Rates||Higher Immigration Levels|
|Government Policies:||Housing Inventory Shortage|
|Mortgage Stress Test Changes||Stronger Economic Recovery|
|Vacancy Tax and Foreign Speculation Tax|
|Foreign Buyer’s Ban|
|Zoning and Increased Supply of Housing|
A look at house price forecasts by Canada’s major banks gives us a look at what they predict Ontario house prices will be in 2023 and 2024.
RBC predicts that Ontario home prices will decrease 13.7% in 2023, and increase 2.9% in 2024. RBC also forecasts that home sales in Ontario will decrease by 13.9% in 2023 and increase by 34.1% in 2024.
TD predicts that Ontario average home prices will fall by 13.3% in 2023 before rising a modest 0.8% in 2024. For Ontario home sales, TD forecasts an 8.1% decrease for 2023 and an 18% increase in 2024.
Ontario Housing Market Forecast 2023 and 2024
|Forecast By:||2023 Price Growth||2024 Price Growth|
Housing Markets Across Canada
Data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Any analysis or commentary is the opinion of the analysts at WOWA.ca and should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult a licensed real estate professional before making a real estate investment decision. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA.