Ontario Housing Market Report

WOWA Trusted and Transparent
Market Report Summary for June 2022
Updated July 20th, 2022
  • Average home prices in Ontario have
    increased
    by 9% in a year to
    $881,475

Average Home Prices in Ontario for June 2022

$881,475
Avg. Sold Price
-6%
Monthly change
-16%
Quarterly change
3%
Annual change

Historical Average Home Prices in Ontario

Best 5-Year Variable Mortgage Rates in ON
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Butler Mortgage
Butler Mortgage
3.44%
nesto
nesto
3.45%
Pine
Pine
3.55%
BMO
BMO
4.24%
TD
TD
4.35%
CIBC
CIBC
4.39%
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Ontario Housing Market as of June 2022

For June 2022, the average price of a home in Ontario increased 3% year-over-year to $881,475. Similar to other Canadian housing markets, the average Ontario home price has been slipping over recent months during a time of rising interest rates and slowing demand. June 2022’s average home price of $881,475 is a 6% drop compared to last month’s average home price of $940,485 in May 2022.

Average sold prices in Ontario’s housing market peaked in February 2022, when the average sold price reached $1,086,493 in the province. That was the first and second-to-last time that Ontario’s housing market ever saw its average price above the $1 million mark. This ended in March 2022 when the average price fell back below $1 million.

Compared to the February 2022 peak, Ontario home prices are down by almost 19% in just four months. The average sold price of a home in Ontario today is $200,000 less than it was during the February 2022 peak. This comes about during a period of aggressive Bank of Canada rate hikes and rising Canadian mortgage rates.

June 2022’s significant slump in home prices on a monthly basis is a trend seen in many of Ontario’s major housing markets over recent months. Average sold prices in Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Mississauga broke all-time records in February 2022, yet they have all since fallen from their record-breaking highs. However, even after June’s month-over-month dip, home prices in Ontario are still up year-over-year, just at a moderated pace. In comparison, the average sold price of a home in Canada nationally is down by 2% year-over-year.

As Ontario’s housing market cools, a common pattern seen among major Ontario cities is the significantly lower transaction numbers compared to the same month last year. Home sales in Toronto are down by 42% year-over-year while Ottawa’s housing market is seeing a 29% decrease in sales year-over-year. Activity in Hamilton’s housing market has also slowed, with Hamilton's sales activity down 35% year-over-year. Mississauga home sales are down 43% year-over-year and home sales activity in Brampton is down by a stunning 53% compared to last year.

Ranking Ontario’s major urban housing markets in terms of annual price growth for June 2022, Hamilton led the way with a 10% year-over-year increase in average sold prices. Next up were Mississauga and London, Ontario, which both had a 7% year-over-year increase in prices. Brampton and Ottawa home prices saw a 5% year-over-year increase, while GTA home prices also saw a 5% year-over-year increase.

After seeing extraordinary price gains earlier this year, Ontario’s housing market is now seeing annual price gains similar to other Canadian housing markets. For instance, home prices in Edmonton have had a 2% year-over-year price increase for June 2022, while Calgary’s housing market sits with a 5% year-over-year price increase for June 2022. Winnipeg stands with an 8% year-over-year increase, while Montreal had a 9% year-over-year increase in its average sold price.

Toronto, Mississauga, and Brampton all continue to have average sold prices above the $1 million mark this month. The average home price in Toronto’s housing market for June 2022 was $1,152,175 for the City of Toronto and $1,146,254 for the GTA, while Brampton’s average sold price was $1,063,479. Rounding out the top three was Mississauga, which had an average sold price of $1,093,743 in June 2022.

The Hamilton and Ottawa housing markets remain cheaper alternatives to the GTA’s expensive home prices. Hamilton’s average sold price for June 2022 was $863,016, while Ottawa’s average sold price was $690,940. Real estate in London, Ontario, also remains relatively affordable, with an average price of $686,287.

Looking at year-over-year price increases in the rest of the province, some housing markets in Northern Ontario continue to see exceptional price growth when looking at benchmark prices. The benchmark home price in Sault Ste. Marie is up 33% year-over-year to $313,600, and North Bay has seen benchmark prices rise 24% over the past year to $437,300. For other areas, Windsor home prices are up 28%, Kitchener-Waterloo home prices are up 7%, Sudbury home prices are up 21%, Thunder Bay home prices are up 12.5%, Cornwall home prices are up 18%, Barrie home prices are up 17%, and Kingston home prices are up 13% year-over-year.

The expansion of the CMHC First-Time Home Buyer Incentive in the Toronto CMA, which spans most of the Golden Horseshoe Region, provided a small boost to housing demand for sub-$700K properties in the GTA. In addition, the CMHC adjusted their standards for mortgage insurance in 2021, broadening the eligibility to allow more levered and lower credit applications. While insured mortgages are becoming a smaller proportion of total mortgage origination volume, this is still likely to help marginal buyers enter the market.

Counteracting these changes, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) raised the benchmark rate for the mortgage stress test in 2021. This change, coupled with rapidly rising mortgage rates in Ontario, is expected to limit the affordability of both insured and uninsured borrowers. This will dampen the demand for housing in Ontario.

Housing Markets of Major Cities in Ontario

CityAverage Home Prices
(June 2022)
Population
(2021)
Toronto
2,794,356
2.3% vs. 2016
Ottawa
1,017,449
8.9% vs. 2016
Hamilton
569,353
6.0% vs. 2016
Mississauga
717,961
-0.5% vs. 2016
Brampton
656,480
10.6% vs. 2016
London
422,324
10.0% vs. 2016
Best 5-Year Variable Mortgage Rates in ON
more calculators button
Butler Mortgage
Butler Mortgage
3.44%
nesto
nesto
3.45%
Pine
Pine
3.55%
BMO
BMO
4.24%
TD
TD
4.35%
CIBC
CIBC
4.39%
more calculators button
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Real Estate Report and Forecast
Toronto Real Estate Report and Forecast
Ottawa Real Estate Report and Forecast
Hamilton Real Estate Report and Forecast
Mississauga Real Estate Report and Forecast
Brampton Real Estate Report and Forecast
London Real Estate Report and Forecast

Ontario Housing Market Forecast for 2022

Looking forward, Ontario’s housing market forecast for 2022 depends on a few factors. The primary trigger for a downturn in prices is interest rates, while increased numbers of newcomers will have an upward pressure on prices.

Low mortgage rates have helped to stoke demand and have contributed largely to the massive price increases over the past year. Demand has been fueled by such abnormally low mortgage rates, breaking record-lows in fact, which makes it cheaper for buyers to borrow money. This period of low interest rates is set to end as the Bank of Canada signals that interest rates will eventually increase over the next few years. The impact of a jump in mortgage rates is still up in the air, as it is still not certain exactly how much interest rates will increase by. However, inflation has been creeping upwards, which signals that rates will surely go up, not down.

Immigration, looking mainly at newcomers and international students, has been largely absent throughout much of 2020 and 2021. This is also set to change as schools open back up to foreign students and immigration returns to normal levels. More people looking for a home will boost demand, especially as we head into the fall. Met with a shortage in housing inventory, a surge in buyers will introduce upward pressure on housing prices.

Two factors are now at play: whether an interest rate hike will become the catalyst for a correction in housing prices or if higher immigration levels will be enough to boost demand to ward off a dip in buyers from increased rates. Other factors include unknown policy changes emanating from the upcoming federal election, such as policies affecting supply of housing, along with the rate of Canada’s post-pandemic recovery, population growth, and taxes.

Ontario’s Housing Market Forecast: Things to Watch

Negative ImpactPositive Impact
Higher Interest Rates

Government Policies:
Mortgage Stress Test Changes
Vacancy Tax and Foreign Speculation Tax
Zoning and Increased Supply of Housing
Rent Control
Higher Immigration Levels
Housing Inventory Shortage
Stronger Economic Recovery

A look at house price forecasts by Canada’s major banks gives us a look at what they predict Ontario house prices will be in 2021 and 2022.

RBC predicts that Ontario home prices will increase 15.8% in 2021, and 3% in 2022. RBC also forecasts that home sales in Ontario will increase by 11.3% in 2021 and decrease by 20% in 2022.

TD predicts that Ontario average home prices will rise by 19.8% in 2021 before falling 1.3% in 2022. For Ontario home sales, TD forecasts a 17.4% increase for 2021 and a 16.7% decrease in 2022.

Ontario Housing Market Forecast 2021 and 2022

Forecast By:2021 Price Growth2022 Price Growth
RBC15.8%3%
TD19.8%-1.3%

Housing Markets Across Canada

Data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Any analysis or commentary is the opinion of the analysts at WOWA.ca and should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult a licensed real estate professional before making a real estate investment decision. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA.