Ontario Housing Market Report

WOWA Trusted and Transparent
Market Report Summary for October 2022
Updated November 17th, 2022
  • Average home prices in Ontario
    decreased
    by 9% year-over-year to reach
    $835,090
  • Greater Toronto Area home prices
    decreased
    by 7% year-over-year to
    $1.08M
  • City of Toronto home prices
    decreased
    by 4% year-over-year to
    $1.05M
  • Ottawa home prices
    decreased
    by 2% year-over-year to
    $624k
  • Mississauga home prices
    decreased
    by 2% year-over-year to
    $1.02M
  • Brampton home prices
    decreased
    by 12% year-over-year to
    $1.00M
  • Hamilton home prices
    decreased
    by 9% year-over-year to
    $761k

Average Home Prices in Ontario for October 2022

$835,090
Avg. Sold Price
-0.14%
Monthly change
0.44%
Quarterly change
-9%
Annual change

Historical Average Home Prices in Ontario

Note: Data sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS®, and other regional or local realtor boards.

Best 5-Year Variable Mortgage Rates in ON
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BMOBMO
5.64%
CIBCCIBC
5.69%
TDTD
5.70%
RBCRBC
5.75%
ScotiabankScotiabank
6.15%
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Ontario Housing Market as of October 2022

The average home price in Ontario’s housing market has dropped on a monthly basis for seven out of the past eight months as Bank of Canada rate hikes and rising Canadian mortgage rates put a chill on the market. For October 2022, the average Ontario home price was $835,090, down 8.5% year-over-year and down a further 0.1% compared to last month.

This dip in prices comes about even after the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a slight increase in prices this month, the third monthly price gain in a row, in contrast to the rest of the province. The GTA’s average home price for October 2022 was $1,089,428, up 0.25% from last month and down 6% year-over-year.

Average sold prices in Ontario’s housing market peaked in February 2022, when the average sold price reached $1,086,493 in the province. Since then, Ontario home prices are now down by 23% over the course of eight months. Today's average sold price of a home in Ontario is $251,000 less than it was during the February 2022 peak. This coincides with Bank of Canada rate hikes this year, which started in March 2022. Since February, Canadian prime rates have more than doubled from 2.70% to the current prime rate of 5.95%. During this same period, Canada’s inflation rate has gone from 5.69% in February 2022 to 6.9% in October 2022.

October 2022’s continued slide in home prices is a trend seen in many of Ontario’s major housing markets over recent months. Average sold prices in Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa, and Mississauga broke all-time records in February 2022, yet they have all since fallen from their record-breaking highs. Average home prices in Ontario are down by 8.5% compared to last year. In comparison, the average sold price of a home in Canada nationally is down by 10% year-over-year. Prices in BC’s housing market are down by only 3% year-over-year, while home prices in Alberta are up 2% year-over-year.

As Ontario’s housing market cools, a common pattern seen among major Ontario cities is the significantly lower transaction numbers compared to the same month last year. Home sales in Toronto are down by 49% year-over-year while Ottawa’s housing market is seeing a 41% decrease in sales year-over-year. Activity in Hamilton’s housing market has also slowed, with Hamilton's sales activity down 44% year-over-year. Mississauga home sales are down 53% year-over-year and home sales activity in Brampton is also down by 53% compared to last year.

Ranking Ontario’s major urban housing markets in terms of annual price growth for October 2022, Mississauga led the way with a 1% year-over-year decrease in average sold prices, which was the most moderate decline. Next up was Ottawa with a 2% decrease in prices year-over-year. London home prices saw a 5% year-over-year decrease, while GTA home prices saw a 6% year-over-year decrease. Brampton's housing market had an 8% decrease in average sold prices year-over-year, on par with Oshawa’s housing market 8% year-over-year decline in prices. Hamilton experienced the largest price decline, down by 9% year-over-year.

Toronto and Brampton continue to have average sold prices above the $1 million mark this month, even if just barely. The average home price in Toronto’s housing market for October 2022 was $1,093,097 for the City of Toronto and $1,089,428 for the GTA. Brampton’s average selling price was $1,003,263. Mississauga fell out of the $1 million club this month, which is the first time that Mississauga’s average sold price has been below $1 million since October 2021. For October 2022, Mississauga’s average home price was $987,356.

The Hamilton and Ottawa housing markets remain cheaper alternatives to the GTA’s expensive home prices. Hamilton’s average sold price for October 2022 was $790,130, while Ottawa’s average sold price was $624,003. Real estate in London, Ontario, also remains relatively affordable, with an average price of $640,570. Oshawa had an average price of $782,227.

Looking at year-over-year price increases in the rest of the province, some housing markets in Ontario continue to see interesting annual price movements when looking at average prices. Some areas of Ontario are still seeing home prices that are higher than they were last year, even as the provincial average remains lower than last year. Cornwall's average home price of $413,907 is up 7% year-over-year, while Timmins saw its average home price increase by 8% year-over-year to $256,942.

Markets with relatively moderate changes include Thunder Bay, where prices are down 0.2% year-over-year to $309,310, and Sarnia-Lambton, with an average price of $471,486, down 2% year-over-year.

Housing Markets of Major Cities in Ontario

CityAverage Home Prices
(October 2022)
Population
(2021)
Toronto
$1,050,788
-4.2% vs. 2021
2,794,356
2.3% vs. 2016
Ottawa
$624,003
-2.4% vs. 2021
1,017,449
8.9% vs. 2016
Hamilton
$761,244
-8.9% vs. 2021
569,353
6.0% vs. 2016
Mississauga
$1,022,312
-1.6% vs. 2021
717,961
-0.5% vs. 2016
Brampton
$999,631
-12.3% vs. 2021
656,480
10.6% vs. 2016
Best 5-Year Variable Mortgage Rates in ON
more calculators button
BMOBMO
5.64%
CIBCCIBC
5.69%
TDTD
5.70%
RBCRBC
5.75%
ScotiabankScotiabank
6.15%
more calculators button

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Housing Market Overview

November 2022

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Housing Market Trends

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Real Estate Report

Toronto Housing Market Overview

November 2022

Toronto Housing Market Trends

Toronto Real Estate Report

Ottawa Housing Market Overview

October 2022

Ottawa Housing Market Trends

Ottawa Real Estate Report

Hamilton Housing Market Overview

November 2022

Hamilton Housing Market Trends

Hamilton Real Estate Report

Mississauga Housing Market Overview

November 2022

Mississauga Housing Market Trends

Mississauga Real Estate Report

Brampton Housing Market Overview

November 2022

Brampton Housing Market Trends

Brampton Real Estate Report

London Housing Market Overview

November 2022

London-St. Thomas Housing Market Trends

London Real Estate Report

Ontario Housing Market Forecast for 2022

Looking forward, Ontario’s housing market forecast for 2022 depends on a few factors. The primary trigger for a downturn in prices is interest rates, while increased numbers of newcomers will have an upward pressure on prices.

Low mortgage rates have helped to stoke demand and have contributed largely to the massive price increases over the past year. Demand has been fueled by such abnormally low mortgage rates, breaking record-lows in fact, which makes it cheaper for buyers to borrow money. This period of low interest rates is set to end as the Bank of Canada signals that interest rates will eventually increase over the next few years. The impact of a jump in mortgage rates is still up in the air, as it is still not certain exactly how much interest rates will increase by. However, inflation has been creeping upwards, which signals that rates will surely go up, not down.

Immigration, looking mainly at newcomers and international students, has been largely absent throughout much of 2020 and 2021. This is also set to change as schools open back up to foreign students and immigration returns to normal levels. More people looking for a home will boost demand, especially as we head into the fall. Met with a shortage in housing inventory, a surge in buyers will introduce upward pressure on housing prices.

Two factors are now at play: whether an interest rate hike will become the catalyst for a correction in housing prices or if higher immigration levels will be enough to boost demand to ward off a dip in buyers from increased rates. Other factors include unknown policy changes emanating from the upcoming federal election, such as policies affecting supply of housing, along with the rate of Canada’s post-pandemic recovery, population growth, and taxes.

Ontario’s Housing Market Forecast: Things to Watch

Negative ImpactPositive Impact
Higher Interest Rates

Government Policies:
Mortgage Stress Test Changes
Vacancy Tax and Foreign Speculation Tax
Zoning and Increased Supply of Housing
Rent Control
Higher Immigration Levels
Housing Inventory Shortage
Stronger Economic Recovery

A look at house price forecasts by Canada’s major banks gives us a look at what they predict Ontario house prices will be in 2021 and 2022.

RBC predicts that Ontario home prices will increase 15.8% in 2021, and 3% in 2022. RBC also forecasts that home sales in Ontario will increase by 11.3% in 2021 and decrease by 20% in 2022.

TD predicts that Ontario average home prices will rise by 19.8% in 2021 before falling 1.3% in 2022. For Ontario home sales, TD forecasts a 17.4% increase for 2021 and a 16.7% decrease in 2022.

Ontario Housing Market Forecast 2021 and 2022

Forecast By:2021 Price Growth2022 Price Growth
RBC15.8%3%
TD19.8%-1.3%

Housing Markets Across Canada

Data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Any analysis or commentary is the opinion of the analysts at WOWA.ca and should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult a licensed real estate professional before making a real estate investment decision. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA.