Canadian Housing Market Report

*Seasonally Adjusted

Note: Data sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)

September 2026 marked a renewed setback for Canada's housing market after several months of relatively stable activity and prices.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales fell 2.3% month-over-month, while CREA's national benchmark Home Price Index declined 0.4%. On an annual basis, sales were down 7.7%, and the benchmark was 3.4% below September 2025.

The national average home price also fell 1.6% year-over-year, reversing the modest annual increase recorded in August.

What makes September particularly notable is that the weakness is no longer limited to the benchmark measure. Both national average and benchmark prices are now below their year-earlier levels.

However, this is not a uniform decline across Canada.

Ontario and British Columbia recorded annual benchmark-price declines of 3.9% and 4.7%, respectively. In contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador (+5.5%), Manitoba (+3.4%), Saskatchewan (+2.8%), and New Brunswick (+2.7%) continued to record annual benchmark gains.

The national slowdown therefore reflects a combination of weakening demand in Canada's largest housing markets and more resilient conditions in several smaller provinces.

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Terms and conditions apply. Rates are per annum and subject to change without notice. Eligible for CDIC deposit insurance. See WealthONE's website for current rates and applicable balance tiers. Highest rate in Canada for RRSP HISA accounts, as confirmed by WOWA as of July 24 2026

Canada's housing market weakened in September 2026 as rising mortgage rates and renewed economic uncertainty dampened the fall buying season. Seasonally adjusted national home sales declined 2.3% from August and were 7.7% lower than September 2025 on an unadjusted basis.

The national average home price was $666,538, down approximately 0.3% month-over-month and 1.6% year-over-year. Canada's benchmark home price was $651,400, down 3.4% annually. CREA's seasonally adjusted Home Price Index also fell 0.4% from August, following several months of relatively stable prices.

New listings declined 1.8% month-over-month, but sales fell slightly faster, pushing the national sales-to-new-listings ratio down from 49.1% in August to 48.8% in September.

There were slightly more than 200,000 active listings across Canada, up 1.8% from a year earlier. National inventory reached 4.9 months, compared with 4.8 months in August, keeping the overall market within balanced territory.

Note: Sales are seasonally adjusted

Despite the national slowdown, provincial housing markets continued to move in different directions.

The largest annual increases in average home prices were in Newfoundland and Labrador (+7.0%), Alberta (+4.8%), and Manitoba (+7.2%).

At the other end of the market, Ontario's average home price was 4.3% lower than in September 2025, while British Columbia's was down 2.4%.

Regional differences therefore remain substantial. Several Prairie and Atlantic provinces continue to experience annual price appreciation, even as weaker sales and falling prices in Ontario and B.C. weigh on national housing-market performance.

No Canadian province set a new all-time record for either its average selling price or benchmark home price in September 2026.

Newfoundland and Labrador came relatively close. Its average home price reached $372,633, just below its previous record of $375,334. Its benchmark price was $355,600, compared with the record of $359,300 set in July 2026.

Prince Edward Island's benchmark price increased to $377,900 in September but remained below its July 2026 record of $388,400.

The absence of new provincial price records is another indication that price growth has become more concentrated.

Some smaller provinces continue to report meaningful annual appreciation, but even historically strong markets are no longer consistently setting new monthly price highs.

Benchmark prices provide a better measure of changes in the value of a typical home than average prices because they are less affected by changes in the types of properties sold.

September 2026 brought an important shift in Canada's housing price trends: both the national average and benchmark home prices were lower than a year earlier.

The national average price fell 1.6% year-over-year to $666,538, while the benchmark price declined 3.4% to $651,400.

In August, the national average price had still been 0.6% higher than a year earlier, despite the benchmark already being 3.0% lower. September's decline in both measures suggests that the broader market slowdown is becoming more visible even in average selling prices.

The benchmark measures the value of a representative home, while the average price can shift depending on the types and locations of properties sold.

This distinction remains important when comparing provinces.

For example, Alberta's average selling price increased 4.8% year-over-year, while its benchmark declined 0.4%. Nova Scotia showed the opposite pattern of modest average-price growth (+1.2%) alongside a 2.5% benchmark decline.

Meanwhile, Newfoundland and Labrador's average and benchmark prices both increased by more than 5% annually, pointing to more consistent price strength.

The takeaway is that national averages alone cannot capture how differently regional housing markets are performing.

Canada remained in a balanced housing market in September 2026, although conditions became slightly more favourable to buyers.

The national sales-to-new-listings ratio fell from 49.1% in August to 48.8% in September, below its long-term average of 54.7%.

CREA generally considers a sales-to-new-listings ratio between approximately 45% and 65% consistent with balanced market conditions.

Canada's 4.9 months of inventory was also close to its long-term average of five months. Under CREA's national inventory thresholds, a buyer's market generally requires more than 6.4 months of supply, while a seller's market has fewer than 3.6 months.

However, the national balance masks much more significant differences between provinces.

British Columbia had 8.4 months of inventory, while Prince Edward Island had 6.8 months. Ontario's inventory stood at 5.4 months, but its sales-to-new-listings ratio was only 34.0%, indicating considerable weakness in demand relative to new supply.

In contrast, Manitoba had just 2.6 months of inventory, Saskatchewan had 3.6 months, and Newfoundland and Labrador had 4.3 months.

Canada therefore remains balanced overall, but the negotiating power of buyers and sellers continues to depend heavily on location.

British Columbia and Prince Edward Island have some of Canada's highest inventory relative to sales, while Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta remain considerably tighter.

A particularly important development is that Manitoba had just 2.6 months of inventory in September, making it the tightest provincial market in this comparison.

Note: Canada's figure is seasonally adjusted. Provincial figures are calculated using active listings divided by sales for the month.

September 2026 provided further evidence that Canada's housing-market recovery remains fragile.

Seasonally adjusted sales fell 2.3%, new listings declined 1.8%, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio slipped to 48.8%. The national benchmark also declined 0.4% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Although national inventory remained close to historical norms, weaker demand and renewed increases in mortgage rates are creating additional obstacles for buyers.

The fall market has therefore failed to generate a convincing national rebound so far. Ontario and B.C. continue to experience weaker pricing conditions, while several Prairie and Atlantic provinces remain more resilient.

With fixed mortgage rates rising and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decisions, the outlook for Canadian housing remains cautious heading into the final months of 2026.

British Columbia's housing market remained Canada's most expensive provincial market in September 2026, but high home prices continue to coexist with unusually weak sales activity.

The provincial average home price was $924,279, virtually unchanged from August (-0.1%) but down 2.4% from September 2025.

There were 5,254 residential sales during September, down 7.1% month-over-month and 8.9% year-over-year.

According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), sales were also 25.8% below the 10-year average for September, indicating that the slowdown extends well beyond normal seasonal fluctuations.

B.C. had approximately 43,940 active listings, representing 8.4 months of inventory, one of the highest levels among Canadian provinces.

The combination of weak sales, substantial inventory, and falling annual prices suggests that buyers continue to have meaningful negotiating power, particularly in markets with a large supply of competing properties.

One concern for B.C. is that the province's housing market was already struggling to regain momentum before bond yields and fixed mortgage rates began climbing again. Higher borrowing costs could delay a recovery further.

However, conditions vary significantly by region and property type. BCREA describes many individual markets as relatively balanced despite the high province-wide inventory figure.

For sellers, realistic pricing remains important. For buyers, September's numbers suggest that patience and comparison shopping may continue to pay off.

Quebec's housing market showed some improvement in sales activity during September 2026, but the broader trend suggests that the province is gradually moving toward more balanced conditions.

The provincial average home price was $556,162, up 0.9% from September 2025 but down 1.6% from August.

There were 7,045 residential sales, an 8.4% increase from August but a 7.1% decline from September 2025.

New listings reached 15,378, bringing the sales-to-new-listings ratio down to approximately 45.8%, compared with 52.1% in August.

Active listings climbed to 45,185, up 23% from September 2025, leaving approximately 6.4 months of inventory based on September's sales.

The increase in available properties is particularly important because Quebec had maintained relatively strong pricing even as Ontario and British Columbia experienced more pronounced declines.

However, the provincial figures conceal a growing divide between Montreal and Quebec City.

The Montreal average home price fell 1.0% month-over-month to $683,074 and was only 0.9% above September 2025. Sales declined 12.4% year-over-year, while the number of properties for sale increased 15.7%.

Montreal's slowing annual price growth and expanding inventory suggest that the market is losing some of the momentum that supported prices throughout 2025 and early 2026.

Quebec City

Quebec City remained considerably stronger than Montreal in September 2026, particularly in terms of price growth.

There were 776 sales during September, up 14.6% from August but down 4.7% from September 2025.

The average home price climbed to approximately $510,946, an increase of 4.4% month-over-month and 6.8% year-over-year.

Although sales declined annually, the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB) reported that Quebec City's sales activity remained 23% above its 10-year average.

Active listings increased 35% year-over-year, but the number of homes available for sale remained approximately half its historical average.

This helps explain why Quebec City continues to experience stronger price pressure than Montreal despite both markets recording fewer annual sales.

The distinction is important: Quebec's housing market is not simply cooling uniformly. Montreal is becoming increasingly buyer-friendly, while Quebec City's historically limited supply continues to support home prices.

Alberta

Alberta's housing market remained relatively balanced in September 2026, with annual average-price growth continuing despite weaker sales.

The provincial average home price reached $528,556, up 0.8% from August and 4.8% year-over-year.

There were 5,699 sales during September, down 4.9% month-over-month and approximately 6% year-over-year.

Alberta recorded 10,598 new listings and 21,805 active listings, resulting in a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 53.8% and approximately 3.8 months of inventory.

Although Alberta continues to have tighter supply than Ontario and B.C., conditions have become noticeably less competitive than during the province's rapid housing expansion between 2022 and 2024.

An important distinction is emerging between property types.

In Calgary's housing market, detached homes remained relatively balanced, while apartment and row housing experienced greater supply pressure. Calgary's apartment market had more than five months of inventory in September, compared with just over three months for detached homes.

This suggests that Alberta's market is becoming increasingly segmented. Strong average-price growth does not necessarily mean every housing type or neighbourhood is appreciating.

Overall, Alberta remains comparatively resilient, but slower sales and improving inventory suggest that buyers are gaining leverage in certain segments.

Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan remained one of Canada's tighter housing markets in September 2026, even as buyers began to see modest improvements in available supply.

The provincial average home price was $350,191, down 4.1% from August but still 3.7% higher than September 2025.

The provincial benchmark price was $376,700, down from $381,600 in August but nearly 3% higher year-over-year.

There were 1,361 residential sales, down 9.9% month-over-month and 11.0% year-over-year.

Saskatchewan recorded 2,182 new listings and 4,940 active listings, producing a 62.4% sales-to-new-listings ratio and approximately 3.6 months of inventory.

Despite the sales slowdown, the Saskatchewan REALTORS® Association reported that September sales were still 9% above the 10-year average, while active inventory remained nearly 40% below historical levels.

This is an important distinction from Ontario and B.C., where weak sales are occurring alongside unusually high inventory.

In Saskatchewan, softer sales are allowing supply to recover from historically tight levels rather than creating a large surplus of homes.

As a result, Saskatchewan remains relatively seller-leaning, although buyers may finally be gaining more time and choice than they had earlier in the year.

Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia's housing market continued to soften in September 2026 as inventory increased and sales remained below historical norms.

The provincial average home price was $463,312, down 0.9% from August but up 1.2% year-over-year.

However, the benchmark price declined to $423,200, down 2.5% from September 2025. The difference between average and benchmark price movements suggests that changes in the types of homes sold may be masking broader pricing weakness.

There were 929 sales during September, down 6.8% month-over-month and 6.4% year-over-year.

Nova Scotia had 1,609 new listings and 5,661 active listings, resulting in a 57.7% sales-to-new-listings ratio and approximately 6.1 months of inventory.

Active listings were 13.4% higher than a year earlier and reached their highest September level in more than five years.

Nova Scotia is therefore becoming increasingly buyer-friendly, even though its sales-to-new-listings ratio remains within a range generally associated with balanced conditions.

In Halifax's housing market, conditions were somewhat more resilient.

The average home price was $585,650, down 1.2% from August but up 0.4% year-over-year. There were 434 sales, down just 1.6% from August but 4.1% higher than September 2025.

Halifax's stronger annual sales performance suggests that demand is holding up better in the provincial capital than in several other parts of Nova Scotia.

Nevertheless, rising inventory across the province indicates that sellers increasingly face competition from other available properties.

Prince Edward Island

Prince Edward Island delivered one of Atlantic Canada's more encouraging sales performances in September 2026, although elevated inventory continued to favour buyers.

The provincial average home price was $409,925, down 2.6% from August but up 1.4% year-over-year.

Its benchmark price was $377,900, nearly unchanged from a year earlier, rising just 0.5%.

There were 201 sales during September, up 6.9% both month-over-month and year-over-year. This represented the highest September sales total since 2021.

However, new listings also remained strong. P.E.I. recorded 341 new listings, the highest September figure on record, alongside 1,360 active listings.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio was 58.9%, with approximately 6.8 months of inventory.

P.E.I.'s September results illustrate why improving sales do not always translate into rising home prices.

Buyers are returning to the market, but the large selection of available properties continues to limit sellers' pricing power.

Although September's sales rebound is encouraging, sustained demand growth would likely be necessary to absorb the existing inventory and create stronger upward pressure on prices.

New Brunswick

New Brunswick's housing market experienced another slowdown in September 2026, although home prices remained modestly higher than a year earlier.

The provincial average home price was $346,510, down 0.7% from August but up 1.6% year-over-year.

Its benchmark price was $341,700, up 2.7% from September 2025.

There were 724 residential sales, down 12.2% month-over-month and 12.6% year-over-year.

The province recorded 1,291 new listings and 4,049 active listings, resulting in a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 56.1% and approximately 5.6 months of inventory.

September's sales total was the weakest for that month since 2018, while active listings reached their highest September level in more than five years.

However, local markets performed differently. Sales in Greater Moncton fell 26.1% year-over-year, while Saint John recorded a 3.3% increase.

The province therefore appears to be shifting toward more balanced, buyer-friendly conditions rather than experiencing a uniform decline in prices.

With sales below historical norms and inventory increasing, sellers may face greater pressure to price competitively as the market moves into the slower winter season.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Newfoundland and Labrador remained one of Canada's stronger provincial housing markets in September 2026, supported by comparatively tight inventory and continued annual price growth.

The provincial average home price increased 1.6% from August to $372,633, representing a 7.0% increase from September 2025.

The benchmark price was $355,600, up 5.5% year-over-year, suggesting that the province's price growth extends beyond changes in the mix of homes sold.

There were 641 sales during September, up 2.7% from August and 5.1% year-over-year.

The province recorded 967 new listings and 2,743 active listings, producing a 66.3% sales-to-new-listings ratio and approximately 4.3 months of inventory.

Although four months of inventory might suggest relatively balanced conditions in other provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador's historical context tells a different story.

Active listings were 18.4% lower than a year earlier and 35.7% below their 10-year average. Meanwhile, the province's long-term average for September is approximately nine months of inventory.

This means current supply remains unusually tight by the province's historical standards, even with more than four months of inventory.

Unlike Ontario and British Columbia, Newfoundland and Labrador is experiencing both relatively strong annual price growth and historically limited housing supply.

That combination suggests the province may remain more resilient than Canada's softer housing markets, although affordability and the direction of mortgage rates remain important risks.

Canada's Housing Markets Remain Divided

One of the clearest features of September 2026's housing data is the growing divide between Canada's provincial markets.

Ontario and British Columbia continue to experience falling benchmark prices, while Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador recorded annual benchmark increases.

Nationally, the market remained balanced, with a 48.8% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.9 months of inventory. However, provincial supply ranged from just 2.6 months in Manitoba to 8.4 months in British Columbia.

That means B.C. had more than three times as much inventory relative to monthly sales as Manitoba.

These differences suggest that local supply and demand conditions remain more important than national trends when assessing a housing market.

Canada is not experiencing one uniform housing correction. Some provinces are struggling with weak sales and elevated inventory, while others continue to face relatively limited housing supply and upward price pressure.

Ontario and B.C. Continue to Weigh on the National Benchmark

Canada's two most expensive large provincial housing markets remain significant sources of downward pressure on national home prices.

In September 2026, benchmark prices were 3.9% lower year-over-year in Ontario and 4.7% lower in British Columbia.

Meanwhile, Newfoundland and Labrador (+5.5%), Manitoba (+3.4%), Saskatchewan (+2.8%), and New Brunswick (+2.7%) continued to record annual benchmark increases.

However, those gains have not been sufficient to reverse the national decline.

Canada's benchmark home price was 3.4% below September 2025, while its national average selling price declined 1.6%.

Unlike August, when average prices were still marginally higher year-over-year, both national measures now point to weaker prices.

That suggests the weakness in Ontario and B.C. is increasingly difficult to offset through continued price growth elsewhere.

It also illustrates why national housing-market statistics can be misleading for buyers and sellers in provinces experiencing very different conditions.

September's Fall Market Failed to Deliver a Sales Rebound

September is typically associated with renewed housing-market activity as buyers and sellers return after the summer.

However, the September 2026 data shows that the expected fall recovery has not materialized nationally.

Seasonally adjusted home sales fell 2.3% from August, following a 0.6% decline in the previous month. New listings also fell 1.8%, pushing the national sales-to-new-listings ratio slightly lower to 48.8%.

Perhaps more importantly, the national benchmark Home Price Index declined 0.4% after several months of relatively stable prices.

The picture was particularly weak in Ontario.

Ontario's new listings surged 26.6% from August to September, while sales fell 2.1%. This pushed the province's unadjusted sales-to-new-listings ratio down sharply from 43.9% to 34.0%.

That is a significant mismatch between available supply and demand, even after allowing for normal seasonal changes.

The takeaway is that new listings alone do not create a stronger housing market. Without enough buyers, a fall increase in available homes can simply mean more competition among sellers.

Rising fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty over future Bank of Canada decisions could also make it harder for sales activity to recover through the remainder of 2026.

September's Provincial Sales Changes Need Seasonal Context

Several provinces recorded monthly sales declines in September 2026, including New Brunswick (-12.2%), Saskatchewan (-9.9%), British Columbia (-7.1%), and Alberta (-4.9%).

However, those numbers should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of a sudden collapse in housing demand.

Provincial monthly sales figures are generally not seasonally adjusted, so they can reflect normal changes in activity throughout the year.

Some provinces even recorded monthly increases. Quebec's sales rose 8.4%, while Prince Edward Island's increased 6.9% and Newfoundland and Labrador's rose 2.7%.

The national seasonally adjusted series provides a clearer measure of the short-term direction of the Canadian market.

And unlike some of the provincial changes, the national 2.3% sales decline cannot be explained simply by normal seasonal patterns.

That makes September's weakness more concerning than a routine end-of-summer slowdown.

The national figures suggest that housing demand genuinely lost momentum, even though the extent of that slowdown varied considerably by province.

Resale Demand Weakens Even as Housing Starts Edge Higher

Canada's resale market weakened in September 2026, even as new home construction recorded a modest monthly increase.

According to newly released data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts increased approximately 3% from August to 248,896 units in September.

However, the six-month trend rose just 0.6% to 250,411 units, indicating that the underlying pace of construction remained relatively flat.

Actual housing starts in centres with populations of at least 10,000 were 11% lower than September 2025. For the first nine months of 2026, starts were down 4% from the same period last year.

Meanwhile, approximately 371,617 housing units remained under construction in larger urban centres. Monthly completions totalled 17,398 units, down 0.9% from August.

These figures point to an important contradiction in Canada's housing market.

The resale market has weakened because buyers are struggling with affordability and borrowing costs, yet the country continues to face a long-term housing supply shortage.

CMHC estimates that annual housing starts would need to reach approximately 417,000 to 469,000 units to restore affordability to pre-pandemic levels by 2036.

That is substantially higher than the current pace of construction.

The risk is that weak housing demand today discourages new development, reducing the supply of homes available several years from now.

Canada could therefore experience softer home prices in the short term while continuing to face structural housing shortages over the longer term.

What Does September 2026 Mean for Buyers?

For buyers, September's housing data presents an increasingly favourable negotiating environment in some provinces, but higher borrowing costs remain an important obstacle.

British Columbia had approximately 8.4 months of inventory, Prince Edward Island had 6.8 months, and Ontario had 5.4 months. Ontario's particularly low 34.0% sales-to-new-listings ratio suggests buyers have considerably more choice relative to demand.

Benchmark prices were also down 4.7% year-over-year in B.C. and 3.9% in Ontario.

However, lower home prices do not automatically mean better affordability.

Rising fixed mortgage rates can increase monthly payments and reduce the maximum mortgage amount a buyer qualifies for, potentially offsetting some of the savings from lower purchase prices.

Conditions are quite different in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador, where inventory remains considerably tighter and annual benchmark prices continue to rise.

Nationally, September's 48.8% sales-to-new-listings ratio, 4.9 months of inventory, and 0.4% seasonally adjusted monthly benchmark decline suggest that buyers generally face less competition than during the pandemic-era housing boom.

For buyers who can comfortably qualify for a mortgage, weaker markets may provide opportunities to negotiate on price, conditions, and closing dates.

But waiting for home prices to fall further also carries a risk if mortgage rates continue rising.

What Does September 2026 Mean for Sellers?

Sellers are facing an increasingly competitive housing market in several parts of Canada.

In Ontario and B.C., benchmark prices were 3.9% and 4.7% lower than a year earlier, respectively, while buyers continued to have a relatively large selection of homes.

Ontario's September results are particularly noteworthy. New listings increased substantially from August, but sales declined, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio down to just 34.0%.

That means sellers are facing more competition from other listings without a corresponding increase in demand.

Pricing realistically from the beginning may therefore be more effective than listing well above comparable properties and making reductions later.

Sellers in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador face more favourable conditions, with inventory of 2.6, 3.6, and 4.3 months, respectively, and continued annual benchmark-price growth.

Nevertheless, the national slowdown is worth watching even in stronger markets.

September's decline in seasonally adjusted sales and benchmark prices suggests that the fall housing market is losing momentum rather than accelerating.

With fixed mortgage rates rising and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada's interest rate outlook, sellers may need to adjust their expectations heading into the final months of 2026.

📊 2026 Canada Housing Market Forecast

Forecasts for the remainder of 2026 continue to point toward a subdued year rather than a major housing rebound.

CREA's July 2026 forecast expects 463,336 residential sales in 2026, a 1.4% decline from 2025. The national average home price is forecast to increase 1.1% to approximately $686,710.

CMHC is somewhat more cautious. Its Summer 2026 Housing Market Outlook projects approximately 457,200 sales, an average price of approximately $675,200, and 241,400 housing starts during 2026. CMHC expects slow economic growth, weaker population growth, elevated borrowing costs, and economic uncertainty to restrain housing demand before conditions improve in 2027 and 2028.

1. 🏦 Constraint from Stable Interest Rates

Market expectation of stable BoC rates until 2027 acts as a brake on sales activity.

• No "Unleashing" of Demand: The market will not benefit from the "powerful boost" of further rate cuts that some forecast.

• Mortgage Renewal Headwind: A large portion of all outstanding Canadian mortgages are expected to renew in 2026. Since many of these renewals will be at higher rates than their initial contracts (especially five-year fixed mortgages), homeowners will face payment increases for those renewing in 2026. This rising cost of ownership will force/encourage some sellers to list.

2. ⚔️ Damage from Trade Conflict

The trade conflict is a net negative that hits both the supply and demand sides of the market simultaneously.

• Supply Crisis Deepens: Retaliatory tariffs on key imports (e.g., steel, aluminum, glass, and major appliances) from the U.S. will drive up the price of building materials. This added expense will cause developers to delay or scrap new projects, reducing housing starts and prolonging the supply crisis.

• Confidence Sinks: The primary risk is the "overall economic slowdown" caused by trade uncertainty, which translates directly into lower consumer confidence and a hesitation to make a large purchase, further muting sales activity.

3. 🌍 Stabilization from Established Immigrants

The sustained underlying demand from recent immigrants who are now credit-ready will be the market's main stabilizing force.

• Demand Maturation: Immigrants from the last few years are now meeting the necessary two years of Canadian residency and job stability required for favourable mortgage financing and are transitioning from the rental market to the ownership market.

• Price Floor: This structural demand will be concentrated in major urban markets (Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary), acting as a floor under prices and likely preventing the very steep annual declines that some forecast for Ontario and BC from being realized. This sustained demand will offset economic softness caused by trade anxiety.