Mortgage Originations in Canada

Monthly Residential Mortgage Originations Summary

• Low point: January 2013 - $15.9B
• High point: June 2021 - $59.6B
• Latest (Aug 2025): $50.9B

Monthly residential mortgage originations at Canada’s chartered banks rose from about $16 billion in early 2013 to more than $50 billion by mid-2025. This means that monthly mortgage originations to Canadian households have more than tripled compared to 12 years ago.

The pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 brought the strongest expansion on record. Ultra-low Bank of Canada policy rates and aggressive buyer demand pushed monthly originations to a record $59.6 billion in June 2021. Rising home prices magnified borrowing needs, with buyers taking on larger mortgage loans. Renewals and mortgage refinances also surged during this period, adding to the increase as borrowers locked in lower mortgage rates and tapped into rising home equity.

As the Bank of Canada raised rates in 2022, lending contracted quickly. Originations declined from nearly $49 billion in June 2022 to $21 billion by January 2023, the slowest January since 2015, as borrowers pulled back amid affordability issues.

Recovery in originations began in 2024. Activity strengthened from $21 billion in January 2024 to over $50 billion by mid-2025, signalling renewed market stability amid easing rate expectations. January 2025 saw $44 billion in originations, more than double the $21 billion recorded a year earlier in January 2024. By August 2025, total monthly originations had reached $50.9 billion, approaching pandemic-era all-time highs.

From 2013 to 2025, we can see clear growth in the mid-2010s, explosive pandemic borrowing, a rapid correction, and a gradual recovery into 2025. Rising home prices amplify these swings in mortgage originations, driving larger loan volumes during booms and sharper pullbacks during downturns.

What Mortgage Originations Measure

Mortgage originations represent the total value of new mortgage loans issued within a given period. In the graph and table of Canadian residential mortgage origination data above, the data is measured monthly. Mortgage originations include both new mortgages for buyers purchasing a home, and refinances, switches, and same-lender mortgage renewals of existing mortgage loans.

The data shows the overall lending activity of Canada’s chartered banks in the Canadian housing market each month. Rising originations signal stronger borrowing and housing activity, while declines point to weaker demand or tighter lending conditions.

Note that monthly mortgage originations follow a seasonal pattern, typically dipping during the slower winter months and climbing through the spring and summer as home-buying activity accelerates.

Canadian mortgage borrowers have shifted dramatically between fixed vs. variable mortgages over the past decade, closely mirroring changes in interest rate cycles.

Between 2013 and 2020, the majority of borrowers opted for fixed-rate mortgages. Mortgages with a fixed interest rate accounted for 60% to 90% of residential mortgage originations, with variable mortgages accounting for less than 40%. Stable or slowly rising mortgage rates made fixed mortgage rates the default choice for households prioritizing payment certainty.

That balance flipped during the pandemic period. In 2020, as the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 0.25%, variable-rate mortgage borrowing began climbing in popularity. By mid-2021, variable-rate mortgage originations had surged past 50% of total mortgage originations, peaking at over 57% in January 2022. Low rates made variable mortgages significantly more attractive, and many borrowers opted for them amid record-low interest rates.

This shift reversed sharply once rate hikes began in March 2022. As the Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate from near zero to above 5%, variable-rate originations collapsed. By early 2023, variable-rate mortgages accounted for just 5% to 10% of new lending, while fixed-rate mortgages dominated over 90%.

In 2024 through to 2025, variable-rate mortgage borrowing has rebounded modestly. As rate cuts occurred, the variable share rose from about 8% in mid-2024 to 24% by mid-2025. Fixed-rate mortgages remain the majority, but borrowers are again showing some risk appetite for variable-rate mortgages.

Shift Toward Uninsured Mortgage Lending (2013–2025)

Over the past twelve years, the composition of Canadian mortgage lending shifted sharply toward uninsured mortgages, reflecting the effects of rising home prices, stricter insurance limits, and regulatory reforms.

In 2013, insured mortgages made up around 37% of all residential mortgage originations, with $5.9 billion insured mortgages originated in January 2013 versus $10 billion uninsured. By 2025, the insured share had declined to just 22%, with insured mortgage originations at $11 billion for August 2025, and uninsured originations totalling almost $40 billion.

This means that uninsured mortgage originations have grown roughly twice as fast as insured originations over the past twelve years. Insured lending increased by about $5 billion since 2013, while uninsured lending expanded by nearly $30 billion.

Impact of 2016 Federal Policy Changes

In 2016, a series of federal policy changes narrowed eligibility for mortgage insurance and curtailed lenders’ use of portfolio insurance. The Department of Finance introduced new mortgage stress tests and capped the size and type of loans that could be insured through new CMHC rules, directly reducing the insured share of originations.

For example, in October 2016, the federal government announced CMHC rule changes, including that portfolio insurance would no longer be available for refinances, rental properties, homes valued at over $1 million, or mortgages with amortizations exceeding 25 years. At the same time, all insured borrowers, regardless of the size of their down payment, were required to qualify at the Bank of Canada’s posted rate, rather than their contract rate.

This “insured mortgage stress test” effectively tightened borrowing capacity and sharply reduced the number of mortgage loans that could both meet the test and fall within insurance limits. On January 1, 2018, the stress test requirement was extended to all borrowers, including those with uninsured mortgages.

Effects of the $1 Million Insurance Cap

The maximum purchase price for insured loans also remained capped at $1 million, unchanged despite years of rapid price appreciation. As home values in major cities exceeded that threshold, more borrowers were automatically pushed into the uninsured category.

The insured share dropped from roughly 33% to 35% in 2015/2016 to below 30% by 2017. By 2020/2021, insured originations averaged only 20% to 25% of total lending.

Post-Pandemic Lending

During the post-pandemic correction (2022-2023), overall lending declined, yet the insured-uninsured split remained stable, with approximately 15% to 17% of loans insured and 83% to 85% uninsured. Even as demand for homes cooled, most new mortgages stayed outside the insured market. In major cities such as Toronto’s housing market and Vancouver’s housing market, average home prices remained above $1 million, which kept many borrowers above the insured mortgage price cap.

Recent CMHC Rule Changes and Partial Rebound

Between 2024 and 2025, insured lending began to recover slightly, increasing from 16% to 22% of total originations by August 2025. Increases in the share of insured mortgages stemmed from further federal policy changes that slightly eased access to insured mortgages.

In 2021, CMHC reversed several stricter qualification criteria it had introduced the previous year. It reinstated higher allowable debt-service ratios, up to 39% GDS and 44% TDS, and removed the minimum credit score increase that had temporarily limited insured eligibility.

More recently, the federal government raised the insured mortgage price cap above $1 million, bringing it to $1.5 million under certain conditions. This expansion helped bring more buyers back into eligibility for insured mortgages. Combined, these steps have contributed to a slight rebound in insured lending share since 2024. The insured portion rose from about 16% in early 2024 to around 22% by mid-2025.

Popularity of 5-Year Mortgage Terms in the Early 2010s

From 2013 through roughly 2016, 5-year (and longer) fixed terms were the clear majority. These longer terms regularly made up 40% to 60% of all new mortgages. Stable interest rates and predictable mortgage payments pushed most borrowers toward the security of a 5-year term.

Shorter terms (1-3 years and 3-5 years) each held 20% to 30% of total mortgage originations, while terms of less than a year rarely exceeded 5%.

Shift Toward Shorter Terms in 2016–2019

Between 2016 and 2019, the distribution became more balanced. Rising rates, relative to the lows seen in 2015, and expectations of further tightening encouraged borrowers to choose shorter fixed terms, especially 1-3 year and 3 to less than 5 year products.

By 2018-2019, 5-year terms had fallen to 30%-40% of monthly originations, while mid-length terms often made up 40-50% combined. The share of less than 1-year terms also rose modestly into the 6%-10% range, reflecting increased interest in short-term flexibility.

Return to 5-Year Terms During the Pandemic (2020–2021)

As mortgage rates plunged in 2020, borrowers moved back to longer fixed terms. With 5-year mortgage rates reaching historic lows, the 5-year category again climbed above 60% at several points in 2020.

Shorter terms declined sharply. The shorter than 1-year category fell to 4-6%, while mid-range terms slipped as borrowers locked in low rates for as long as possible.

Movement Toward Shorter Terms During the Rate-Hike Cycle (2022–2023)

When the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates in 2022, term choices changed quickly. Borrowers shifted away from long terms and toward 1-3 year and 3-5 year options once again.

By late 2022 and through 2023:

• <1-year term grew to 7–10% of originations
• 1–3 year terms frequently exceeded 35–40%
• 3–5 year terms rose above 40–50%
• 5-year terms fell into the 15–25% range

Preference for 3-5 Year Terms in 2024-2025

In 2024 and 2025, 3-5 year mortgages became the dominant choice. This term accounted for 50-62% of new originations, reflecting borrower expectations that rates would fall in the next few years.

Borrowers avoided the 5-year plus category, which remained at only 12-23%, while short than 1-year terms held steady at 6-10%. The 1-3 year share drifted lower into the 15-20% range as buyers balanced flexibility with stability.

Conclusion

Canadian mortgage originations more than doubled between 2013 and 2025, with clear cycles of expansion, correction, and recovery. The mix of fixed vs variable, insured vs uninsured, and changing term lengths shows how directly borrowers respond to interest rates, policy shifts, and home prices.

This page brings those patterns together in one place using monthly data from Canada’s chartered banks. Lenders, policymakers, and housing analysts can use these charts and tables to benchmark risk, track demand, and understand how Canadian households adapt to a fast-changing mortgage market. To view deeper mortgage and housing data insights or request custom data packages, contact WOWA Data Labs.