There will be an avalanche of mortgage renewals in Canada in 2025
We've delved into the Q1 2024 financial reports from* TD, Scotiabank, BMO, CIBC, National Bank, and Desjardins' Q4 2023 to assess residential mortgage renewal data.
This analysis covers a massive portfolio totaling $1,368 billion, which includes $1,201 billion from residential mortgages in Canada (∼60% of all the residentials mortgages in Canada)**:
February 1 to July 31, 2024 (6 months):
6.8% of the $1,368B which means ∼1.14% of their mortgages per month
August 1, 2024 to January 31, 2025 (6 months):
8.3% of the $1,368B which means ∼1.39% of their mortgages per month
February 1, 2025 to January 31, 2026 (one year):
21.6% of the $1,368B which means ∼1.80% of their mortgages per month
2025's expected surge in mortgage renewals traces back to 2020 and 2021 where the rates were ultra low so many renew and refinance their mortgages.
* Excluded RBC due to their mixed residential mortgage and personal loan statistics.
** In addition to $1,201B in Canadian mortgages, there's also $167B (representing 12.2% of these lenders' residential mortgages) that mainly comprises portfolios outside Canada, along with some non-retail mortgages within Canada.
*** For Desjardins, data starts from January 1, unlike the February 1 start for the other 5 banks. We merged the data, believing the one-month difference has a minimal impact.
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