Mortgage Renewals On the Rise:
Mortgage renewals in Canada are projected to rise sharply in 2025 and 2026, with increases of approximately 57% and 109%, respectively, compared to 2024.
Mortgage Portfolio Overview:
| Term | RBC | TD | Scotiabank | BMO | CIBC | National Bank | Desjardins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Months | 10.3%$46.53B | 9.8%$32.39B | 9.1%$32.1B | 6%$11.38B | 12.2%$34.35B | 7.8%$7.38B | 8.3%$14.55B | 9.5%$178.66B |
| 6 Mo - 1 Year | 11.4%$51.11B | 6.2%$20.43B | 11.6%$40.79B | 8.3%$15.91B | 14.5%$40.6B | 9.7%$9.19B | 12.1%$21.21B | 10.6%$199.23B |
| 1-2 Years | 69.4%$312.27B | 26%$86.11B | 27.8%$97.51B | 27.5%$52.49B | 32.6%$91.45B | 24.9%$23.67B | 24.8%$43.52B | 26.9%$503.6B |
| 2+ Years | 69.4%$312.27B | 58.1%$192.73B | 50.3%$176.68B | 58.1%$111.09B | 40.7%$114.28B | 57.1%$54.22B | 50.6%$88.75B | 50.2%$941.16B |
| No Specific Maturity | 8.9%$39.99B | 1.1%$3.87B | 0.1%$0.21B | 0.6%$0.55B | 4.1%$7.25B | 2.8%$51.87B | ||
| Total | $449.9B | $331.65B | $350.94B | $191.08B | $280.67B | $95.01B | $175.28B | $1874.53B |
We analyzed the portfolios of seven major Canadian lenders: RBC, TD, Scotiabank, BMO, CIBC, National Bank, and Desjardins, with a combined global portfolio of $1.88T. Of this, 88% ($1.65T) comprises Canadian residential mortgages. These seven lenders account for over 80% of all mortgages in Canada.
Mortgage Renewal Projections:
Here’s the breakdown for the next two years:
- 🔹 Nov. 2024 – Apr. 2025: 9.5% of $1.88T (~1.58% per month)
- 🔹 May 2025 – Oct. 2025: 10.6% (~1.77% per month)
- 🔹 Nov. 2025 – Oct. 2026: 26.9% (~2.24% per month)
What’s Driving the Surge?
This wave of renewals stems from the low interest rate environment of 2020-2021, when many homeowners locked in 5-year fixed rates during refinancing and renewals.
💼 Stocks to Watch:
$RY, $TD, $BNS, $CM, $BMO, $NA.TO
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Disclaimer:
- Any analysis or commentary reflects the opinions of WOWA.ca analysts and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult a licensed professional before making any decisions.
- The calculators and content on this page are for general information only. WOWA does not guarantee the accuracy and is not responsible for any consequences of using the calculator.
- Financial institutions and brokerages may compensate us for connecting customers to them through payments for advertisements, clicks, and leads.
- Interest rates are sourced from financial institutions' websites or provided to us directly. Real estate data is sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and regional boards' websites and documents.