🏠📉 Home Unaffordability Across the 25 Largest Metro Areas in Canada & the U.S.
Key observations:
1️⃣ Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Charlotte, and Dallas saw some of the worst affordability deterioration.
2️⃣ In Canadian cities, unaffordability deteriorated mainly between 2005–2015, when near-zero interest rates fueled speculative demand. From 2015–2025, affordability changed relatively little.
3️⃣ California tells a different story. Cities that were among the least affordable in 2005, have seen improvements in affordability since then, possibly reflecting a form of self-correction as high prices begin to deter demand.
4️⃣ What actually drives housing unaffordability (both levels and trends)?
A. 👥 Population growth: Affordability has deteriorated in many fast-growing cities; however, several of them such as Charlotte, Dallas, and Houston which have higher population growth than Canadian cities, remain relatively affordable.
B. 💸 Speculative demand: Canada's housing affordability deteriorated sharply between 2005 and 2015 after the Bank of Canada cut interest rates to near zero following the 2008–09 crisis. Unlike the U.S., Canada's economy was not in an emergency and didn't experience a housing crash, yet emergency-level monetary policy fuelled speculative behaviour and pushed prices higher.
C. 🏗️ Zoning: Many of the least affordable cities have restrictive zoning. By contrast, cities like Dallas and Houston remain relatively affordable despite some deterioration, largely due to looser zoning policies.
Home Unaffordability Across the 25 Largest Metro Areas in Canada & the U.S.
| Metro Area | Unaffordability Change 2005 to 2025 ▼ | Home Price to Income July 2005 | Home Price to Income July 2015 | Home Price to Income July 2025 | Population Change 2005 to 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | +72.6% | 5.5 | 9.1 | 9.6 | +35.4% |
| Vancouver | +69.5% | 7.4 | 12.2 | 12.5 | +43.8% |
| Charlotte | +57.5% | 2.7 | 3.3 | 4.2 | +89.8% |
| Dallas | +53.4% | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | +43.5% |
| Montreal | +52.2% | 4.3 | 5.0 | 6.6 | +22.7% |
| Detroit | +45.3% | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | -2.1% |
| Atlanta | +45.0% | 2.8 | 3.1 | 4.0 | +29.6% |
| Houston | +38.1% | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | +49.1% |
| Denver | +37.9% | 3.6 | 4.7 | 5.0 | +29.7% |
| Philadelphia | +27.5% | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.1 | +8.2% |
| Seattle | +26.1% | 4.9 | 4.8 | 6.2 | +29.5% |
| Boston | +17.1% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 6.0 | +12.7% |
| Minneapolis | +14.1% | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | +20.0% |
| Tampa | +13.2% | 3.8 | 3.4 | 4.3 | +29.8% |
| Miami | +8.5% | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.2 | +18.6% |
| San Francisco | +6.5% | 7.5 | 8.3 | 8.0 | +12.0% |
| Phoenix | +5.2% | 4.4 | 3.9 | 4.6 | +33.5% |
| Orlando | +4.9% | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | +51.6% |
| New York | +2.1% | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.6 | +6.1% |
| Baltimore | +1.8% | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | +7.9% |
| Los Angeles | +0.2% | 9.3 | 8.4 | 9.4 | +1.3% |
| Chicago | 0.0% | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.6 | +0.5% |
| Washington | -6.5% | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | +23.1% |
| Inland Empire* | -7.9% | 6.3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | +22.9% |
| San Diego | -9.1% | 8.6 | 7.1 | 7.8 | +12.1% |
*Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area
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