📊 Big 6 Banks' Outlook for the Bank of Canada Policy Rate

Where do Canada's Big 6 bank economists see the Bank of Canada policy rate heading?

We pulled together the latest forecasts from RBC, TD, Scotiabank, BMO, CIBC, and National Bank. Here's where each sees the policy rate landing by December 2027:

• 🔵 RBC: 3.25%
• 🔴 Scotiabank: 3.00%
• 🟣 CIBC: 2.75%
• 🟢 TD: 2.25%
• 🔵 BMO: 2.25%

📊 Average: 2.70%

A few things worth noting:

• Nearly a full percentage point separates the most dovish forecasts (TD, BMO at 2.25%) from the most hawkish (RBC at 3.25%), a meaningful gap.
• Scotiabank's path moves up fastest, reaching 2.5% by Dec. 2026, well ahead of the others.
• BMO and TD stand apart on the low end, holding steady at 2.25% through the forecast horizon while the rest trend higher.

This kind of spread among the country's top bank economists is a useful reminder: no single forecast should be treated as gospel when it comes to planning a mortgage renewal or locking in a rate. It pays to look at the full range of views, not just the one that fits the narrative you want.

We track and update these forecasts regularly on WOWA Data Labs, so in 1.5 years, we'll be able to check which banks called it best.

Big 6 Banks' Outlook for the Bank of Canada Policy Rate

Average (RBC, Scotiabank, CIBC, TD, BMO): 2.70%. National Bank's forecast horizon is shorter than the other five banks', so it is excluded from the average. Sources: RBC Economics, TD Economics, Scotiabank Economics, BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, and National Bank Capital Markets.